Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines there would then unquestionably be an 'intelligence explosion', and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Good speculated in 1965 that artificial general intelligence might bring about an intelligence explosion: It is speculated that over many iterations, such an AI would far surpass human cognitive abilities. This recursive self-improvement could accelerate, potentially allowing enormous qualitative change before any upper limits imposed by the laws of physics or theoretical computation set in. Such an AI is referred to as Seed AI because if an AI were created with engineering capabilities that matched or surpassed those of its human creators, it would have the potential to autonomously improve its own software and hardware to design an even more capable machine, which could repeat the process in turn. If a superhuman intelligence were to be invented-either through the amplification of human intelligence or through artificial intelligence-it would vastly improve over human problem-solving and inventive skills. However, with the increasing power of computers and other technologies, it might eventually be possible to build a machine that is significantly more intelligent than humans. Ehrlich, changed significantly for millennia. One claim made was that the artificial intelligence growth is likely to run into decreasing returns instead of accelerating ones, as was observed in previously developed human technologies.Īlthough technological progress has been accelerating in most areas, it has been limited by the basic intelligence of the human brain, which has not, according to Paul R. Prominent technologists and academics dispute the plausibility of a technological singularity and the associated artificial intelligence explosion, including Paul Allen, Jeff Hawkins, John Holland, Jaron Lanier, Steven Pinker, Theodore Modis, and Gordon Moore. The consequences of the singularity and its potential benefit or harm to the human race have been intensely debated. Some scientists, including Stephen Hawking, have expressed concern that artificial superintelligence (ASI) could result in human extinction. Another significant contributor to wider circulation of the notion was Ray Kurzweil's 2005 book The Singularity Is Near, predicting singularity by 2045. He wrote that he would be surprised if it occurred before 2005 or after 2030. The concept and the term "singularity" were popularized by Vernor Vinge first in 1983 in an article that claimed that once humans create intelligences greater than their own, there will be a technological and social transition similar in some sense to "the knotted space-time at the center of a black hole", and later in his 1993 essay The Coming Technological Singularity, in which he wrote that it would signal the end of the human era, as the new superintelligence would continue to upgrade itself and would advance technologically at an incomprehensible rate. Subsequent authors have echoed this viewpoint. Stanislaw Ulam reports in 1958 an earlier discussion with von Neumann "centered on the accelerating progress of technology and changes in the mode of human life, which gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue". The first person to use the concept of a "singularity" in the technological context was the 20th-century Hungarian-American mathematician John von Neumann. Good's intelligence explosion model, an upgradable intelligent agent will eventually enter a "runaway reaction" of self-improvement cycles, each new and more intelligent generation appearing more and more rapidly, causing an "explosion" in intelligence and resulting in a powerful superintelligence that qualitatively far surpasses all human intelligence. According to the most popular version of the singularity hypothesis, I. The technological singularity-or simply the singularity -is a hypothetical future point in time at which technological growth becomes uncontrollable and irreversible, resulting in unforeseeable changes to human civilization.
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